There’s an old joke among comedians.
FIRST COMEDIAN: “What is the most important thing in comedy?”
SECOND COMEDIAN: “Wh-”
FIRST COMEDIAN: “TIMING!”
The same goes for many things in life, but perhaps none is more important than sports betting. Capturing important information – an injury, a coaching change, something that can impact the line – is important, but not if you can’t act on it immediately. However, in the age of cell phones, this has become even easier.
A good example of this came earlier this week in the NFL Week Eleven list. On Wednesday morning, news came out of Cleveland that QB Deshaun Watson would be out for the season with a shoulder injury. The Browns were 3.5-point favorites at this point (after opening at -4.5) in their upcoming battle against their division rival Pittsburgh Steelers.
What do you think happened to the line? By Thursday afternoon the line had dropped to half a point; on Friday the line for the Browns settled at -1.5. However, sharp bettors were likely on the ball, taking the Steelers and the points (+3.5) in a game they certainly have the potential to win.
That’s the key to winning bets – staying on top of what’s happening in the sports world and then being able to act on that information. We’ll try to give you the same great insight as we make some picks for the NFL Week Eleven schedule. As always, all advice is for entertainment purposes only, but make sure each selection has been carefully considered (Home Team in CAPITAL LETTERS).
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. CLEVELAND BROWNS (-1.5)
I might have gotten the Steelers at +3.5, but I see absolutely nothing that would dissuade me from the team even at +1.5. The Browns have chosen a rookie QB in Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who will get his first NFL start against TJ Watt and the voracious Steeler defense. QB Kenny Pickett has somehow found a way to keep this team in the game, and Steelers WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens are starting to awaken from their early-season slumber. This game has all the hallmarks of a defensive battle and I will be pulling the steel curtain over the Brownies.
CHOOSE: Steelers +1.5
Las Vegas Raiders vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS (-13.5)
Here’s a case where the books TRY to get people off their horse. When the book opened to this game, Miami was the -9.5 point favorite and everyone was on that number. As the week progressed, the line crept up and settled at the current two-touchdown level. That’s enough for me to take on the Raiders, who have played much better under interim coach Antonio Pierce. They won’t beat the Fins, but the Silver and Black players will at least have enough pride not to be beaten by two touchdowns.
CHOOSE: Raiders +13.5
Philadelphia Eagles v. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (O/U 45.5)
We got a rare gift this NFL Week 11. Thursday night’s game between two legitimate playoff contenders in Baltimore and Cincinnati was an excellent game (however, it was unfortunate that QB Joe Burrow will be out for the rest of the season). We can end the weekend with a rematch between last year’s Super Bowl participants.
Both teams are currently playing at a high level and have only suffered three defeats between each other, which makes the fact that the O/U fluctuates so much a bit interesting. At the start of the week the O/U was 50.5, but by Saturday it had dropped to 45.5. Why? Rain is expected in the Kansas City area for Monday night’s game, which could slow down Jalen Hurts of the Eagles and Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs. I say COULD… I don’t think this slows either team down all that much – I’ll take the OVER here.
CHOOSE: OVER 45.5
